Rational Bayesian Prior Development (Phase III Activity). Final Report

摘要

This report summarizes work carried out for the Advanced Reactor Systems Department (previously the Fast Breeder Reactor Department) during the period 1976 to 1978 on the general subject of the formulation of Rational Bayesian Priors. The development of a rational Bayesian prior for any failure phenomenon of interest typically involves expenditure of considerable time and effort and must be given the detailed and considered attention of engineers and/or scientists who are experts in the area under study. For these reasons, it is not feasible to apply the method broadly in any given design program. This report therefore offers a detailed step-by-step rationale which will typically identify subsystems, components, and individual failure modes which can be satisfactorily treated by other means, leaving a small residue for treatment by the methods described herein. In synopsis, rational Bayesian priors have an important but selective role to play in the assessment of the reliability of nuclear safety systems.