Scenarios For ¹⁴c Release To The Atmosphere by the World Nuclear Industry and Estimated Radiological Impacts. [projections for the Years 1975 Through 2020].

摘要

This paper presents an assessment of the radiation dose to the world population and the associated potential health effects from three scenarios of /sup 14/C releases by the nuclear industry between 1975 and 2020. Measures of health impact are derived from source terms through the use of a multicompartment model of the global carbon cycle, dose-rate factors based on /sup 14/C specific activity in various organs of man, and health-effect incidence factors recently recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection. The scenarios for worldwide /sup 14/C releases considered are (1) a pessimistic scenario in which all the /sup 14/C projected to be produced in fuel cycles is released, (2) an optimistic scenario that assumes a decontamination factor of 100 for fuel reprocessing, and (3) an intermediate scenario that simulates a phased improvement in effluent treatment technology at reprocessing plants. The estimates of cumulative potential health effects are based on integrations over infinite time. Comparisons with estimated effects from naturally formed /sup 14/C are shown.