Exogenous (Nonprice) Factors Influencing Energy/GNP Relationships in Leading OECD Countries

摘要

This study addresses the effect of major trends other than prices on the energy demand and the energy/gross national product ratio (E/GNP) for six leading countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) - Canada, France, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and West Germany. Demographic, technological, political, and economic factors are analyzed in each country and then compared in a summary, integrated chapter. Demographic trends had the most important influence on energy demand. In each country studied, fertility rates have fallen markedly over the past two decades and now hover around 1.8, well below the population replacement level. This is expected to continue through the remainder of this century. The consequences of low fertility rates include: (1) an increase in the participation of women in the labor force; (2) an increase in the number of female automobile drivers; and (3) a decrease in projected total labor-force growth rates. In addition, the lower rate of household formation implicit in this declining population growth decreases residential energy use relative to GNP. Industry represents the largest energy-consuming sector. Industrial energy use is expected to continue a long-term downward trend relative to GNP, even in the absence of energy price increases. (ERA citation 05:012016)