Coal Production Forecasts in the 1978 ARC: an Analysis of Problem Areas. Final Report

摘要

This report presents an analysis of identified problem areas in the National Coal Model (NCM) supply curve submodel, the Reserve Allocation and Mine Costing (RAMC) submodel. The RAMC generates supply curves which are used in both the NCM and the MEMM system that generates the forecasts for the Annual Report to Congress. The study begins with a summary of defined problems with the 1978 ARC forecasts of coal production and prices. A general discussion of these problems is given in Chapter II. Chapters III and IV address the two major portions of the RAMC: the reserve base and the mine costing algorithms. In Chapter III, the reserve base in selected states is reviewed and related to the problem areas discussed in Chapter II. Chapter IV discusses the problems associated with mine costing. (ERA citation 09:009321)