Chairman's Address. World Energy Needs and Supply

摘要

There is no intrinsic demand for energy separable from supply; the demand for a resource reflects its availability. The Conservation Commission of the World Energy Conference used one study that predicted that if economic growth rates were to remain comparable to those of the last forty years, eight times the 1975 level of energy supply would be required by 2020. An alternative view suggested that if the income elasticity for energy declined with increasing economic development, there would be a fourfold increase in energy demand by 2020. Energy supply today and what it might be in 40 years is examined. The energy use of biomass will probably increase in certain areas of the world, but it is unlikely that there will be an overall growth in supply from this source. Energy production from fossil fuels may double between now and the early years of the next century, but unless the recovery rate of coal is increased drastically, growth will peak by mid-century. Hydro-electric and geothermal power may quadruple over the next forty years, but this will not represent a big increase in supply. Solar energy can make only a modest contribution in the next few decades. If there is to be a major increase in world energy supply, it must come from nuclear energy. The Conservation Commission felt that the potential for world energy supply is doubling between 1980 and 2000, and a further. (Atomindex citation 13:700622)