Potential for Industrial Cogeneration Development to Defer New-Utility Electric-Power Capacity over the Next Decade

摘要

Selected utilities in different geographic areas were interviewed to determine the criteria under which they would defer the initiation or completion of central station power plants (essentially, new coal plants) due to projected industrial cogeneration capacity. Using these criteria for the period 1983 to 1993, projected new industrial cogeneration in 28 National Electric Reliability. Council sub-regions was assessed against planned new capacity by all the nation's utilities. Further analysis and discussion with utilities in potentially affected regions revealed that only three sub-regions, Middle South Utilities, Gulf States Utilities, and the Texas System, might experience deferrals due to cogeneration. The projected increment of new cogeneration capacity for the period 1983 to 1993 for these three regions is 2720 MW, which is 3% of the 87,000 MW of new coal plants that utilities in the US plan to bring on line in the next decade. In the three sub-regions the projected cogeneration increment for the ten-year period is 15% of the new capacity (18,000 MW) that utilities have planned. To carry out the study, detailed projections were made of new increments of industrial cogeneration capacity for the five major energy-using industries. It was concluded that about 11,000 MW of new cogeneration capacity could come on line in the period 1983 to 1993. (ERA citation 08:049455)