Global Energy and Future CO sub 2 Emissions: The State-of-the ART

摘要

The link between global long-term energy use and global climate has become a matter of increasing world-wide concern. The burning of fossil fuels releases CO sub 2 , a ''greenhouse'' gas. An increase in concentration of CO sub 2 from 300 ppM to 600 ppM is likely to cause the global average temperature to rise by 3 +- 1.5 deg C. Post-World War II emissions rates have been increasing at 4.5% per year and is 5 x 10 sup 15 g C per year. Future rates of growth depend on many factors. Analysis has shown productivity (economic) growth, particularly in the developing world, to be an extremely important determinant of future CO sub 2 emissions. Factors such as interfuel substitution (the fossil-nonfossil fuel choice), the size of the fossil fuel resource base, income effects, and technological change, have been shown to be important. Feasibility studies have shown that low CO sub 2 emissions futures are possible. Forecast studies have shown that great uncertainty surrounds future CO sub 2 emissions. Expected rates of growth are in the range of 1.0 to 1.5% per year, well below the post-war rate. (ERA citation 11:054768)