Feed Situation and Outlook Yearbook of 2008 (Domestic and International Feed Year in Review Special Report)

摘要

This combination of the Domestic and International Feed Year in Review is a special report of the Feed Situation and Outlook Yearbook of 2008. An expected record utilization in 2007/08 has boosted prices for most feed grains to record levels and is expected to reduce ending stocks to below levels reached in 2006/07. U.S. corn prices in 2007/08 are forecast at a record-high $4.10-$4.50 per bushel, up sharply from prices in 2006/07. U.S. grain sorghum prices also are expected to hit record levels because of large exports. The 2007 barley crop is up year over year, but ending stocks are forecast lower than in the previous year. U.S. barley prices are forecast at a record $4.00-$4.10 per bushel, up from $2.85 a year earlier. Season-average prices for oats are expected to be stronger in 2007/08 than in 2006/07 and just below record levels, despite larger supplies in Canada. Prices for all hay are up in 2007/08, despite higher production and larger December 1 stocks than in the previous year. U.S. corn exports for the October-September 2007/08 trade year are forecast at a record 63.0 million tons, up 16 percent from the previous year and 2 percent above the 1979/80 high. Record world corn trade is projected for 2007/08, as import demand remains strong despite high prices. Competition from Argentina is forecast down due to a reduced corn crop and government intervention limiting export registrations. Brazil has emerged as a large corn exporter, but mostly to markets that do not purchase from the United States. Corn exports from Ukraine, South Africa, and China are expected to be relatively low. World coarse grains are expected to reach records in 2007/08 for prices, production, use, and trade. World coarse grain production in 2007/08 is expected to increase 8 percent to a record 1.06 billion tons, reflecting increased area and higher U.S. yields. Foreign coarse grain production is forecast up only 1 percent, as declines for the Former Soviet Union (FSU), EU-27, other Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East were more than offset by increases for Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, Oceania, and South America. China coarse grain production is up slightly, setting another record. Global coarse grain beginning stocks for 2007/08 were estimated down 28 million tons compared with the previous year, following growth in use in 2006/07.