Least-cost planning for Pacific Gas and Electric. Stage 1: Load Management Strategy Testing Model (LMSTM) calibration.

摘要

This report describes the activities undertaken by LBL to calibrate the Load Management Strategy Testing Model (LMSTM) for use in a least-cost planning exercise with the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) system. There is a great general interest in analytical procedures that facilitate the integration of demand-side activities into utility resource planning. It is widely recognized that this is a complex problem which requires sophisticated modeling. A reasonable question to ask at the outset is what kind of model should be used for this purpose. This is a difficult problem for which there is little guidance and many competing claims and constraints. LBL has chosen to use the LMSTM model (for a general description of LMSTM see DFI, 1982). The motivation for that choice and the procedures necessary to achieve consistency with the results of PG&E's detailed production simulations are the subject of this report. Understanding these issues requires a survey of the production simulation field, paying special attention to the special problems of representing demand-side resources in the same framework traditionally used to evaluate supply side resources. 32 refs., 16 figs., 12 tabs. (ERA citation 15:048751)