Links Between Weather-Normalized Electric Demand and Economic Growth for the United States and Nine Census Divisions, 1977-1985

摘要

This study establishes that a relationship between electric demand growth and economic growth still exists. To some extent, economic growth continues to drive electric demand growth in every region of the Nation. And this means a growing economy will create the need for new electric power supply. Furthermore, this study shows the extent to which electric demand varies with the weather. By filtering out the effects of abnormal weather, it demonstrates that the apparent relationship between electric demand and the economy cannot be attributed to a recent spate of cold winters or hot summers. Rather, the relationship is about what one would expect under normal weather conditions. In adjusting for weather effects, this study makes certain improvements on earlier studies. In general, past work on the relationship between weather and electric demand has assumed that the impact of weather on demand remains constant over a long period of time. This makes it difficult to see how the impact of weather may have changed from year to year with the increasing use of electric heat pumps and air conditioning. In addition, earlier work has focused almost exclusively on the Nation as a whole, neglecting to show how the impact of weather varies among its geographically and economically diverse regions. This technical study describes the results of a regional analysis that normalizes demand for weather, effects on a quarterly basis over the nine-year period from 1977 through 1985. 5 tabs. (ERA citation 13:045123)