Predicting Air Conditioner Load Curves from Energy Audit Data: A Comparison of Predicted and Actual Air Conditioning Data from the Athens Load Control Experiment

摘要

In order to evaluate effectively the benefits of direct load control, utilities need an economical planning tool for estimating the potential effects of load control actions. Previous attempts to model the impacts of load control have met with mixed success because the models often could not be adjusted for local variations in appliance and housing stocks. This paper presents an approach for estimating air conditioning load curves based on household duty cycles. The duty cycles are calculated from heat transfer rates using household audit data, thermostat settings, and outdoor temperatures. The fit between the load curves estimated from the duty cycle model and load curves calculated from measured data for households where curves calculated from measured data for households where customers ''set'' and ''forget'' their air conditioner is presented. The air conditioner and heat pump data used in this paper were gathered during the load control experiments conducted in the summer of 1987 on the Athens Utilities Board distribution system in Athens, Tennessee. Data collected on days when there was no control were used to evaluate the concept of the duty cycle coefficient which was then used to calculate the duty cycle of heat pumps and air conditioners. The theoretical calculations based on the model are then compared to actual measured data. With further refinement to incorporate thermostat setting behavior, the method described here would allow utilities to gather relatively small amounts of survey data and then to make reliable predictions about the duty cycles of air conditioners. Ultimately the method may provide a way to perform a preliminary evaluation of load control without requiring expensive monitoring equipment, data collection, analysis and interpretation. 11 refs., 6 figs., 4 tabs.