Electricity consumption and structural change in manufacturing industry in developing countries.

摘要

This report presents data and analysis on historic trends in electricity consumption and economic output in manufacturing industry for a number of newly-industrialized and developing countries. Combining energy and economic data, we show trends in manufacturing electricity intensity, and analyze the causes of change in intensity to the extent possible. For several of the countries we also show trends in electricity intensity at the sub-sectoral level. Since 1975, there have been large increases in aggregate intensity in Thailand, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, and Venezuela, large decreases in Taiwan and China, and little net change in South Korea and India. While interpretation of trends is hampered by lack of data, the evidence suggests that the effect of change in the composition of manufacturing output on aggregate electricity intensity was much less important than the effect of change in intensity at the sub-sectoral level. Though we were unable to analyze change in composition within sub-sectors, it is evident that is affected electricity intensity. Comparison of aggregate manufacturing electricity use per unit of value-added (converted to US dollars) show that intensity in the mid-1980s varied by more than a factor of two among six countries. China and India, both of whom have relatively old equipment in their industries, are at the top of the range, while South Korea and Taiwan, both of whom have relatively new equipment, are at the low end. With the exception of India, there is a clear correlation between electricity intensity and the average price of electricity to industry. Comparison of intensity among 2-digit sectors, which gives a better sense of the relative efficiency of countries, also shows a considerable range for most sectors. 28 figs., 21 tabs.