Models for Evaluation of Energy Technology and Policy Options to Maximize Low Carbon Source Penetration in the United States Energy Supply

摘要

An initial version of a Systems Dynamics (SD) modeling framework was developed for the analysis of a broad range of energy technology and policy questions. The specific question selected to demonstrate this process was 'what would be the carbon and import implications of expanding nuclear electric capacity to provide power for plug in hybrid vehicles.' Fifteen SNL SD energy models were reviewed and the US Energy and Greenhouse gas model (USEGM) and the Global Nuclear Futures model (GEFM) were identified as the basis for an initial modeling framework. A basic U.S. Transportation model was created to model U.S. fleet changes. The results of the rapid adoption scenario result in almost 40% of light duty vehicles being PHEV by 2040 which requires about 37 GWy/y of additional electricity demand, equivalent to about 25 new 1.4 GWe nuclear plants. The adoption rate of PHEVs would likely be the controlling factor in achieving the associated reduction in carbon emissions and imports.