Transportation energy policy: Back to the past or ahead to the future

摘要

The past 20 years have been both a great shock and a great experiment for the US transportation system. Our predominantly internal combustion engine (ICE)-powered, petroleum-based transportation system has proven to be robust and able to adapt. After nearly twenty years, the US transportation system is still 96% fueled by petroleum, ICE-powered, and consuming greater quantities and a greater percentage of US oil use than ever. But the costs to our nation of the OPEC cartel's monopolization of the world oil market have been enormous, as have the environmental consequences of ever greater production, transportation, and combustion of petroleum. As we look toward the future, the experience of the past twenty years gives us reasons for both confidence and concern. The future appears to hold still greater challenges from local and global environmental problems, and a resurrected problem of oil dependence. Among many possible technological and economic solutions, none clearly emerges as the single best alternative. Yet we can learn much from our past mistakes and successes that can help formulate plans and policies for the future. The future will not be identical to the past and we must be prepared to envision, experiment, adapt, and change the course of history. Given the enormous uncertainties, it would be easy to do little and rely on the robustness of the oil-driven transportation system to muddle through. It would be easy to try to go back to the past. But we could lead the world into the future, not by promoting any one particular technology or fuel, but by sending the right signals through the marketplace and aggressively pursuing research and development of technologies that hold promise for solving the problems of tomorrow.