Expert systems development: some problems, motives and issues in an exploratory study

摘要

Even though expert systems (ES) have been in use since the early eighties, there is a remarkable lack of a strong theoretical base for handling expert systems development problems. There is a requirement in the ES field for theories or explanatory models to formulate propositions, to conduct research and interpret findings in a coherent way. This work presents an exploratory investigation designed to identify some problems, motives and issues associated with developing expert systems. Totally, twenty-five expert systems were developed by various organizations which participated in the study. The study attempts to provide evidence that either supports or refutes the anecdotes, gossips and speculations currently being spread through the academic journals dealing with the expert systems development in organizations. This study provides evidence that knowledge acquisition is indeed the bottleneck of expert systems development. It also points out that most expert systems are still in the prototype stage, and that current expert systems are mostly used for aiding the decision making of less skilled domain personnel and to a lesser extent for advice to experts. The rationale behind these uses seems to be the search by organizations for better decision making in the hope of improving competitiveness. A conceptual model of expert systems development is introduced based upon theoretical studies and the findings of this study from which some hypotheses are drawn. The main objective of the model is to contribute to a larger theoretical framework. Another aim is to create a broader theoretical framework for expert systems development in order to implement such systems more successfully. The results of the study confirm that the linkages of various concepts involved in the expert systems development process are very important for the design of a successful expert system project. (Atomindex citation 25:032127)