Incorporating Adversary-Specific Adjustments into the FORECAS Ground CasualtyProjection Model

摘要

The FORECAS ground casualty projection tool was designed to forecast the numbersof wounded and killed likely to be incurred among Marines and originally based its casualty estimates on those observed in previous combat operations. Adversary-specific adjustments to the casualty projections were required, however, to reflect the degrees of parity between U.S. forces and future potential enemy forces within two domains: (1) combat motivation, and (2) weapons capabilities. A Subject Matter Expert (SME) panel was assembled to specify societal variables that might be reflective of motivational factors and to reach consensus on how these factors might most appropriately be weighed. Societal factors selected included battlefield experience, societal homogeneity, defense spending priority, and technological sophistication. Contrasts were also performed between the weapons inventories of the U.S. and potential adversaries. Armaments were quantified in terms of level of technology and the quantities within four weapons categories: infantry, armor, artillery, and attack aircraft and detection hardware. FORECAS casualty projections now incorporate the degrees of present-day weapons parity and motivational parity between opposing forces.