Who's Next. And Ends, Ways and Means Analysis of the Rise of Potential Hostile Competitors

摘要

Predicting the rise of a peer competitor of the United States is the subject of much thought and speculation. While it is important to forecast all potential competitors, the focus must be on the rise of a hostile competitor. This paper analyzes the prospects for the development of a potential peer and the geopolitical implications for the United States. It concludes that watching for emerging competitive ideologies while analyzing ends, ways, and means provides a solid predictive framework. Taking steps to counter or discredit hostile ideologies and to prevent or mitigate cataclysmic events might help prevent the rise of a hostile competitor. If done ineffectively, it might facilitate the rise of one.