Transformation of Russian Military Doctrine: Lessons Learned from Kosovo and Chechnya.

摘要

This paper provides an authoritative analysis of national security thinking in Moscow as well as some pointed suggestions on how to improve relations between Russia and the West. The conflicts in Kosovo and Chechnya deserve careful study as models for the conduct of future wars and for insights on how to prevent them. It is not surprising that scholars from different countries find dissimilar lessons. Writing from the Russian perspective, Dr. Arbatov criticizes NATO for conducting its air campaign without prior authorization by the United Nations or the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). He strongly defends traditional views of state sovereignty and international law as opposed to recent Western emphasis on the need to protect human rights. This is a new and important debate that will affect a wide range of security agreements and institutions. Dr. Arbatov also criticizes some aspects of Russia's war against the Chechens. Indeed, he asserts that the use of force in Chechnya was based on a flimsy legal foundation, just like NATO's action against Yugoslavia. He worries that this conflict is far from over, and he warns that the growing involvement of the Russian armed forces in domestic conflicts might threaten a young and growing Russian democracy, unless it is properly regulated by the rule of law. Western readers may or may not agree with Dr. Arbatov, when he claims that NATO's actions in Kosovo greatly affected the conduct of Russia's war in Chechnya. However, his overall assessment of the Russian security situation is both logical and important. He addresses many of the same questions that concern Western defense planners. What are the different threats to Russian national interests. How have Kosovo and Chechnya altered possible scenarios of future conflicts. How important are the strategic nuclear forces and arms control agreements. And, what is the right balance among forces designed for sharply different kinds and levels of conflict.