Prospects for a Conventional Arms Reduction Treaty and Confidence- Building Measures in Northeast Asia

摘要

This is the 34th volume in the Occasional Paper series of the U.S. Air Force Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). The first of two goals undertaken in the research for this paper is to explore the possibility of establishing in the Northeast Asian region a conventional arms control treaty negotiation leading to an agreement similar to the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE). It is presumed a reduction in conventional forces will promote stability in the region similar to what has occurred in Europe. The second goal undertaken in this research is to determine the prospects for establishing a Northeast Asian Security Forum similar to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). This body would promote transparency and confidence in Northeast Asia similar to what the OSCE has been able to achieve in Europe. The process by which these proposals would take place would be two-fold. The arms control path would begin between North and South Korea. Only after the two Koreas have negotiated such an agreement would it be extended to other states in the region. The reason for this process is that it is important to first reduce military tensions on the Korean Peninsula. The potential for conventional and sudden conflict in the region exists predominantly on the Peninsula. The two Koreas have already acknowledged the need for a reduction in conventional weapons and have established the basis for this type of agreement in their 1992 Agreement on Reconciliation, Nonaggression and Exchanges and Cooperation Between the South and the North. A second process, a Northeast Asian Security Forum, could be established immediately and would include all states of the Northeast Asian region. This forum would focus on establishing confidence and security-building measures dedicated to military transparency.