Exhalt: An Interdiction Model for Exploring Halt Capabilities in a Large Scenario Space

摘要

EXHALT is a relatively simple, uncertainty-sensitive, and optionally stochastic treatment of the halt phase of an operation in which an attacking force (Red) is advancing on an objective while its armored vehicles are being interdicted by Blue, who uses joint long-range fires in the form of Air Force, Navy, and Army air power and of Navy and Army long-range missiles.1 EXHALT is intended primarily for insight-oriented exploratory analysis. It is well suited to examining a broad scenario space (i.e., assumption space) because (1) it permits both parametric and probabilistic exploration (Davis and Hillestad, forthcoming); (2) it incorporates multiresolution modeling features, which allow users to work with more or less detail (Davis and Bigelow, 1998); and (3) it is interactive in somewhat the same way as a spreadsheet program. EXHALT is programmed in AnalyticaTM, a visual-modeling system that mns on either a Windows%-based per- sonal computer or a Macintosh computer. EXHALT is best used as one tool in a family of analyses that draws also upon, e.g., high- resolution simulations, campaign models, and empirical work, such as service and joint exercises (Davis, Bigelow, and McEver, 1999). Such a family is particularly important in understanding the synergism between ground-maneuver forces and long-range fires, interactions with allied forces, complexities of terrain and infrastructure, and weapon-level issues. That said, long-range fires.