Spillover from the Conflict in Syria: An Assessment of the Factors that Aid and Impede the Spread of Violence.

摘要

All roads lead to Damascus and then back out again but in different directions. The financial and military aid flowing into Syria from patrons and neighbors such as Iran, Russia, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and other Arab Gulf states is intended to determine the outcome of the conflict between a loose confederation of rebel factions and the Bashar Al-Assad regime. Instead, this outside support has the potential to perpetuate the existing civil war within the country and ignite larger regional hostilities between Sunni and Shia areas that could reshape the political geography of the Middle East. In many ways, this is the perfect jihad, pitting Sunni against Shia in a continuation of the long struggle for dominance in the Islamic world. We already are beginning to see the historical hatreds between extremists on both sides of the conflict spill over, spreading fear and influencing political sentiment and opportunism north and east into Turkey and Iraq, west into Lebanon, Israel, and Palestine, and south into Jordan and the Arab Gulf.