China-South Korea Relations: Elder Brother Wins Over Younger Brother.

摘要

Motivated by both economic and strategic interests, China has forged a cordial relationship with the Republic of Korea (ROK) that belies the latter s status as a key U.S. ally. Obstacles to further progress could become stronger in the medium term. Some Korean security analysts believe the People s Republic of China s (PRC) growing power poses potential difficulties for Koreans in the future, including possible constraints on Korea s autonomy and challenges to the U.S.-South Korea relationship. In the near term, however, the relationship appears robust and ripe for further development, a macrocosm of the burgeoning ROK-PRC trading relationship. Beijing s Korean policy shifted visibly through the 1990s, exhibiting friendlier and closer ties with Seoul and decreasing support for Pyongyang. This reflected a pragmatic assessment that Beijing s interests favored cultivating a relationship with the government that would dominate Korean affairs in the future and had much to offer China economically in the present. China has maintained an intravenous flow of aid to North Korea, but only to prevent a strategic liability from crumbling into a strategic disaster. China supplies an estimated 70 percent of North Korea s energy and one-third of its food. Ironically, although North Korea is the socialist comrade and the only state with which China has a formal alliance while South Korea is host to American military bases, in important ways it is Seoul that presently plays the role of partner to China, while Pyongyang is the troublemaker.