Causal Reasoning with Mental Models.

摘要

This paper outlines the model-based theory of causal reasoning. It postulates that the core meanings 17 of causal assertions are deterministic and refer to temporally-ordered sets of possibilities: A causes B 18 to occur means that given A, B occurs, whereas A enables B to occur means that given A, it is 19 possible for B to occur. The paper shows how mental models represent such assertions, and how 20 these models underlie deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning yielding explanations. It reviews 21 evidence both to corroborate the theory and to account for phenomena sometimes taken to be 22 incompatible with it. Finally, it reviews neuroscience evidence indicating that mental models for 23 causal inference are implemented within lateral prefrontal cortex.