No Leader is Ever Off Stage: Behavioral Analysis of Leadership

摘要

With a better understanding of the behavior of foreign leaders, we can strengthen our ability to influence them and their decisions. Assessing these figures accurately-indeed, analyzing human motivation rationally-is a tough business. But predicting the behavior of often reclusive and complex individuals who possess weapons of mass destruction (WMD) is an essential task of modern government. Reliable assessments of nuclear capabilities and human intention in North Korea and Iran top today's list of priorities. U.S. policy, strategy, and operational planning hinge on understanding remote adversarial regimes and our best guess at what their leaders will do next. Will North Korea's leader use his WMD. When. And how far will he go. Need we wait another year and witness more rounds of United Nations (UN) Security Council deliberations before we know what personally motivates Iran's current leader. Not necessarily.