Supply Chain Modeling for Fluorspar and Hydrofluoric Acid and Implications for Further Analyses.

摘要

IDA modeled the supply chains for acid-grade fluorspar and hydrofluoric acid for the Strategic and Critical Materials 2015 Report on Stockpile Requirements for the Defense Logistics Agency Strategic Materials (DLA SM). Acid-grade fluorspar was projected to suffer a shortfall in the stockpile report. Most acidgrade fluorspar is used to produce hydrofluoric acid (HF), which is used to produce most fluorine-containing products. Imported HF can substitute for fluorspar if the accessible global HF supply is sufficient. IDA analyzed the supply chain using the Downstream Risk Assessment Methodology (DRAM), using the same approach for assessing shortfalls for other materials analyzed for the stockpile report. Both fluorspar and HF exhibited gross (unmitigated) shortfalls in the standard Base Case military conflict scenario used for stockpile requirements planning. Potential market responses to the shortfalls were evaluated, and it was estimated that material conservation ("thrifting") could reduce demand sufficiently to eliminate both shortfalls. The fluorspar/HF case shows the value of supply chain analysis: identifying a shortfall in a downstream material form that exists because of inadequate domestic and foreign downstream material processing capacity. Many materials of interest to DLA with downstream processing capacities in foreign countries could potentially benefit from similar analysis.