Defense Acquisitions. Future Combat System Risks Underscore the Importance of Oversight

摘要

We look at a business case as comprising those elements that are key to making an acquisition likely to result in a product that performs as required for the time and money promised. A sound business case includes firm requirements; mature technologies; an acquisition strategy that demonstrates design and production maturity; and adequate funding to cover a realistic cost estimate. When FCS was approved to begin in May 2003, it was far from having a sound business case, especially given its unprecedented size and complexity. Specifically, requirements were not well defined; technologies were very immature; the acquisition strategy was aggressive and did not allow for demonstrating design and production maturity until after the production decision; and despite the insufficient basis for good cost estimates, providing the resources at the estimated costs was a great challenge. Since then, there have been a number of improvements in the program. The schedule was doubled to allow for more demonstrations and to spin capabilities out to the current forces; requirements are better understood, even to the system level; technologies have gotten more mature; cost estimates have grown substantially, making them more realistic. Still, it is 4 years later, and progress should be expected. The Army, doing well by its own measures, is well behind business case measures. Requirements are still being defined; technologies are years away from needed maturity levels; key demonstrations of design and production will still come after the production decision; and independent cost estimates are significantly higher than the Army's.