Baloch Nationalism and the Geopolitics of Energy Resources: The Changing Context of Separatism in Pakistan

摘要

This monograph examines the Baloch separatist insurgency that has resurfaced in recent years in Pakistan's sprawling Balochistan province. The author maintains that the context of today's insurgency differs in certain important respects from that of its 1970s predecessor. Most fundamental of these differences are those stemming from energy resource developments in parts of South, Central, and Southwest Asia. In particular, the monograph looks at how Pakistan's mounting energy insecurity -- a product of rapid increase in demand coupled with rising scarcity and the region's intensified energy rivalry -- has magnified the economic and strategic importance of Balochistan, while at the same time complicating Pakistan's efforts to cope with the province's resurgent tribal separatism. This change in the energy context exerts a powerful threefold impact on the insurgents' prospects. In the first place, it lifts Balochistan and Baloch nationalism to a position much higher on the scale of central government priorities, thus seeming to warrant, as the government sees the problem, zero tolerance and ruthless crushing of the insurgency. Second, it arms the Baloch insurgents both with greater incentives than ever for reclaiming control of Balochistan and with the novel capacity to drive the economic and political costs to the government of continuing insurgent activity far higher than ever in the past. Third, to both sides' advantage, by promising to turn Balochistan into an important corridor for energy trafficking in the region, the changed context creates major opportunities for addressing Baloch nationalist demands in a positive and peaceful manner. While conceding that the counterinsurgency strategy pursued by the government thus far has a conspicuously dark side, the author insists that Balochistan's rapidly changing energy context could supply both the means and the incentives for bringing the insurgency to a swift, negotiated, and amicable end.