Crises in the Southern Caucasus: Cold War, Cold Peace or a New Beginning

摘要

The Georgian attempt to regain control over the break away areas of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by use of military force has triggered a sequence of events of which the outcome is as yet unclear. The consequences of this crisis, however, reach well beyond Georgia's borders and fit the picture of a global order in transition towards multi-polarity. With a feeble cease fire agreement in place after weeks of international political turmoil and Cold War-style rhetoric, it is time to take stock of the situation we find ourselves in and begin to move on. The West ought to think twice before imposing sanctions on Russia. The Soviet Union no longer exists and comparing the current Russian Federation with its predecessor state is wrong if only for the way the Russian and Western European economies are intertwined and interdependent. The very fact that the Russian Federation has now recognized both breakaway areas as independent states by no means nullifies Georgian claims for territorial sovereignty. Conversely, the Georgian claim for sovereignty over South Ossetia and Abkhazia is merely based on the fact that both separatist areas were part of the Georgian Soviet Socialist Republic. The West should clearly distance itself from Mr. Saakashvilli's decision to regain control over South Ossetia by brutal force and at the expense of numerous lives. In any case, and difficult as it may be, a negotiated solution between Georgia, Russia, and both break-away republics, if need be under international auspices, is arguably the only vehicle by which a lasting solution can be found for what has now become a conflict of (major) international dimensions. Now that Russia has cut the Gordian knot at the Caucasus by recognizing Abkhazian and South Ossetian independence, it may even be time for a bold move from the West by offering Georgia the prospect of NATO and European Union membership at the price of recognizing South Ossetian and Abkhazian independence.