Strategic Forum, Number 249, October 2009. Burma in Strategic Perspective: Renewing Discussion of Options

摘要

U.S. policy has sought to nudge the junta in Burma toward a more reasonable approach to its dilemma, either in the form of managing Aung San Suu Kyi's house arrest in a semitransparent fashion, allowing the release of imprisoned prodemocracy activists and the National League for Democracy cadre, agreeing to visits from United Nations special representatives, or accepting regional advice and guidance at critical moments. But Burma is a minuet dramatizing the 'one step forward, two steps backward' description of progress. Even as the administration of President Barack Obama commits itself in principle to reaching out to Burma, events conspire against another effort to coax the junta toward a reasonable, regionally acceptable solution to its hard edge. Exigencies occasioned by Cyclone Nargis compelled a limited 'opening' in the aftermath of the humanitarian crisis, but these were no watershed events signaling a more reasonable posture by the junta toward its neighbors, toward the West, or toward the United States. Nevertheless, they did represent instances of change, and they did provide the foundation for regrouping to determine whether there was a basis for altering some U.S. tactical approaches to Burma. The question is, to what extent do these slight changes represent a real basis for confidence in forward movement.