Iraq Effect: The Middle East After the Iraq War

摘要

The 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq and its aftermath have arguably been the most pivotal events in the Middle East region since the end of the Cold War. For regional commentators, the war has elicited a range of comparisons to other historic and cataclysmic events resulting in foreign occupation, Arab defeat, and regional disarray. Like such events, the ongoing conflict has had widespread effects on the regional security landscape. While the internal outcome in Iraq is indeterminate and is likely to be so for some time as the United States begins its drawdown from the country, the strategic implications of this war and its aftermath have already affected the broader region. The implications of these changes are diverse, affecting relations among states, dynamics inside states, the calculations of nonstate actors, and shifts in public opinion. Taken in sum, the balance sheet of these changes does not bode well for long-term U.S. objectives in the region. That said, a better understanding of how Middle Eastern states and nonstate actors are responding to this war's aftermath can help contribute to U.S. policies that may better contain and ameliorate the negative consequences of this conflict and perhaps increase U.S. leverage. The goal of this monograph is to portray these new dynamics, which we collectively refer to as the 'Iraq effect,' as accurately as possible. By referring to an Iraq effect, we do not suggest that the war is the sole driver behind the emergence of recent threats and opportunities. Rather, the expression is intended to capture the ways in which key policy challenges in the Middle East -- the legitimacy and stability of pro-U.S. regimes, terrorism, and Iranian assertiveness -- have been affected by the war, either directly or indirectly. In some cases, these pressures and threats predate the 2003 invasion but were exacerbated or strengthened by the ensuing internal conflict in Iraq.