Abacus of Frozen Conflicts

摘要

One of the central topics of international relations study is the function of military threats as a mean to deter international crises and war. Rational choice models provide the groundwork for theorizing circumstances under which conventional deterrence is likely to thrive or fail. According to Paul Huth, rational deterrence theorists have focused on four sets of variables: the balance of military forces, costly signaling and bargaining behavior, reputations, and interests at stake. By using the case of the Russian- Georgian War of August of 2008, one can argue that an actor's perception, in addition to signaling, is another essential variable for successful deterrence.