Data Analysis, Modeling, and Ensemble Forecasting to Support NOWCAST and Forecast Activities at the Fallon Naval Station. Annual Report

摘要

The goals of this project are to increase our understanding of weather predictability and its advantages and limitations, and to develop methods to provide more accurate forecasts and nowcasts in complex terrain using multi-model ensemble modeling techniques and special observations including remotely sensed data. The main objectives of the study are: (1) to further develop, test, and continue twice daily operational forecasts using both the real time Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF Version 3.2) model (Skamarock et al. 2008) and Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5 Version 3.7.2) (Grell et al. 1994) with subkilometer horizontal resolution to support the NOWCAST system at the Fallon Naval Air Station (NAS); (2) To assess multi-model ensemble forecasting capabilities and to subsequently include forecasts as a part of a multi-model ensemble using WRF, MM5, and the Coastal Oceanic and Atmospheric Modeling Prediction System (COAMPSTM , Version 3.1.1); (3) To develop methods that combine multi-model ensemble forecasts with climatological fields to improve the skill of the forecasts and nowcasts; and (4) To develop a framework that complements the ensemble forecasting to better understand the sources of error and uncertainty in dynamical forecasts relevant to nowcasting key parameters such as wind speed, cloud fields, and visibility over the Fallon NAS area.