Evolving Threat of al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (Strategic Forum, Number 268, July 2011)

摘要

Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) poses the greatest immediate threat of transnational terrorism in northwest Africa and is escalating its attacks against regional and Western interests. The U.S.-led Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism Partnership has focused on building local and regional capacities to combat AQIM, but these efforts have proved insufficient to prevent further attacks, let alone defeat the group. While Algerian counterinsurgency operations in the northeast of that country have degraded the group's capabilities in the Maghreb, AQIM activity in the Sahel -- including Mali, Mauritania, and Niger -- has increased dramatically since 2007. Extremist AQIM leaders threatening attacks in Europe, emerging ties with militants in Nigeria and other parts of Africa, the potential for AQIM to benefit from unrest in North Africa, and AQIM's growing connections to West Africa's drug trade are all factors that may force a more robust U.S. response. The extent of the threat posed by AQIM and the appropriate U.S. response remain hotly debated in both academic and policy circles. These debates question the seriousness of the threat posed by a relatively small group of hundreds of militants operating in mountainous and arid areas of Africa, their level of ideological commitment versus their criminal and financial motivations, and even the potential complicity of regional security services in supporting AQIM. The United States needs to understand the nature of the threat that AQIM poses today as well as current trends highlighting the future capabilities and intentions of the group. Only with these assessments in place can U.S. policy makers make appropriate decisions on questions about counterterrorism in northwest Africa that are hotly but inconclusively debated.