Divining Disaster: Using Remote Sensing to Predict Regional Instability in African Pastoral Societies.

摘要

US Africa Command's (AFRICOM's) mandate and organization are designed to improve the capacity of partner nations to promote regional stability. In the pastoral regions of Africa, rangeland failure stemming from drought, climate change, desertification, and anthropogenic changes is an underlying initiator of regional instability. AFRICOM can improve its capability to predict when, where, and how severely rangeland failure is likely occur. This will increase AFRICOM's ability to improve partner nations' and organizations' capacities to prepare for and manages these crises. Remote sensing of the rangeland failure indicators coupled with predictive modeling can fill some of the information gaps, leaving AFRICOM better prepared to proactively address regional instability.