The Growth of Cable TV and Its Probable Impact on Over-The-Air Broadcasting

摘要

Results from the model indicate that concern over the potential impact of cable growth on television broadcasting is misdirected on several counts. (1) Reduction in aggregate station revenue due to cable is perhaps not large enough to justify any great concern. Overall revenue loss due to cable is estimated to be about 9 percent. This loss is small enough so that it would be wiped out by one year's typical revenue growth. (2) Stations in larger markets, now sheltered by FCC policy, would on average be little hurt by unrestricted cable growth. (3) Stations in smaller markets, for which FCC policy now provides no protection, would suffer severe revenue reduction due to cable at ultimate penetration. Many might be forced either to discontinue service or to continue only as a satellite of a larger station. (4) In the near term, say through the 1970s, non-network UHF stations (the objects of particular FCC concern) stand to gain substantially from cable growth, because cable puts them on the same technical footing as competing VHF stations. (Author)