A Verstile Method of Prediction for System Reliability

摘要

The report describes a versatile method of Monte Carlo simulation of very complex reliability systems using logic circuit analysis programs linked to statistics programs. The method is useful for all forms of reliability and is not restricted merely to electronics. Maintainability, logic situations, spares provisioning, repair times can all be included without unduly increasing the complexity. No computer knowledge is needed nor is any statistical mathematical background necessary in order to use the system proposed. The method exploits the fact that a large number of engineers are already using logic simulation programs, and these programs themselves are being continually improved. By using the computer to convert reliability diagrams into logic diagrams and then simulating the logic together with a stochastic variable enables the system performance to be simulated under almost any conditions. (Author)