Estimating the Flare-Production Potential of Solar Active Regions from Analysis of Real-Time Magnetic Field Data

摘要

A magnetograph at the Sacramento Peak Observatory is being used on a daily basis to record the magnetic fields in solar active regions. Contour maps of the line-of-sight component of the field are available to the observers and to the flare prediction groups at NOAA and AWS within an hour after observation. The contour maps reveal many details of both weak and strong magnetic fields that are closely associated with large and small flares. Through the use of several examples, empirical rules for estimating flare likelihood are developed. Analysis of the magnetograms shows that flares are probably associated with X-type or Y-type neutral points in the magnetic fields of the solar chromosphere or lower corona. (Author)