Manpower Forecasting: Problems in Determining the Long-Range Supply of Military Manpower.

摘要

Accurate forecasting of the national pool of young men in the 1990's has become an area of concern within the DoD, particularly since Bureau of the Census projections have indicated that the supply from which the military must attract its enlistees will decline until the 1990's, at which time it will be 15 to 25 percent below the current levels, and then will level off. Because of the impact these projections would have on manpower policies and planning, a number of questions arise as to their accuracy and implications. The purposes of this effort were (1) to assess the validity of the underlying assumptions related to fertility in Census Bureau projections of the national manpower pool by evaluating existing evidence as to the determinants of fertility changes and (2) to identify other research problem areas. The literature on the determinants of fertility change was surveyed and results were reported under either economic or sociological approaches. Social variables that appear to be closely related to fertility rates were analyzed. Finally, means for solving other problem areas were identified. The economic theories regarding the determinants of fertility generally are not congruent with empirical evidence. The sociological studies have produced a great deal of information, most of which is fragmentary and nonconclusive. However, a range of social variables, such as the level of women's education and their labor force participation rates, appear to be closely related to fertility change.