A Methodology for Validation of Complex Multi-Variable Military Computerized Models

摘要

Computerized simulation models that are characterized by multi-variables and minimal or nonexistent real world supporting data are often used without being properly validated. The towards-validation methodology is introduced as a four-phase approach for validating these complex models and is defined as: The document evidence that a computerized model can provide users verifiable insight, within the model's domain of application, for the purpose of formulating analytical or decision-making inferences. Towards-validation begins with the conceptual phase of model development. Next, the verification phase examines the mechanical validity of model design. The third phase, credibility, is concerned with both intuitive and statistical appeal. The final phase deals with confidence building and documentation. To illustrate the application of towards-validation, the Headquarters Air Force version of the Interceptor War Game Model is examined. Results are documented in a user's guide. (Author)