An Investigation of the Effect of Production Rate Variation on Direct Labor Requirements for Missile Production Programs

摘要

The addition of the production rate variable to the standard learning curve model has been studied extensively, and has been validated as a significant technique in estimating direct labor hours for airframes, avionics equipment, and aircraft engines. This research set out to determine if the technique was applicable to air-launched missiles. The Maverick and Short Range Attack Missile (SRAM) production programs were evaluated yielding overall good results. Addition of the production rate variable contributed significantly to model estimating capabilities. It also significantly reduced auto-correlation of residuals in almost every case, thus enhancing the model's appropriateness for the data studied. The model could be useful in many missile production programs, but the specific program must be individually evaluated prior to model application. Model improvements were also implemented to reduce computer run-time, increase model flexibility, and provide residual analysis statistics. (Author)