A Comparative Analysis of Two Cost Performance Forecasting Models: The Automated Financial Analysis Program, Electronic Systems Division, November 1976 versus a Cost Performance Forecasting Concept and Model. Aeronautical Systems

摘要

The authors investigated the comparative accuracy of linear and non-linear cost forecasting models in estimating a contractor's cost at completion. Using cost performance reports for 20 completed aircraft programs, the authors generated estimates covering the span of the programs. The mean absolute percentage errors for each method and program were analyzed using ANOVA. Where indicated by ANOVA, Fisher's least significant difference test statistic was used to test the differences and established set groupings. The authors conclude, based on the sample that the linear cost forecasting model is as accurate as the non-linear cost forecasting model. (Author)