Predicting the Effectiveness of Concepts for Future Marine Corps Medical Support Systems. Preliminary Report

摘要

This is a preliminary attempt to identify options for overcoming delays in providing emergency, life-saving medical care in a mass casualty situation. Faced with the need to predict the effects of possible shortages of key medical personnel, particularly surgeons, and also faced with the possibility that medevac helicopters might be inoperable in combat, the Marine Corps requested the authors to analyze in detail Navy/Marine Corps plans for supporting Marine Corps combat operations in the 1984-1993 time period. The principal tool is used in this study was the Navy's WWMMSS (World-Wide Military Medical Support System) simulation model. Projected patient loads were approximately 1400 casualties on D-Day, followed by a steady constant influx of about 400 casualties per day, in a conventional warfare environment. The WWMMSS model predicted that with currently planned medical personnel and procedures, more than 8% of all patients admitted to medical facilities following the second day of combat would die. This 'steady-state' mortality rate is 2 or 3 times higher than suffered by the Marine Corps in Vietnam or Korea. The model also predicted that almost 26% of all patients admitted to facilities during the first two days of combat would die. The medical workload was at its peak during this initial two-day period. All of the predicted deaths occurred at Medical Company facilities, where excessive delays in patient handling occurred, particularly in regard to triage, X-rays, and surgical procedures. (Author)