Scheme for Short-Term Prediction of Hydrometeors Using Advection and Physical Forcing

摘要

We have developed a number of schemes which show skills varying from modest to impressive, depending upon the weather regime. These schemes are interactive, and their successful implementation requires a man-machine mix. The approaches taken in this research project have primarily focused upon the developmental or evolving, i.e. non-steady-state aspects of the problem of short-term forecasting of cloudiness and precipitation. Most of our schemes have incoporated a translational contribution either explicitly or implicitly, however. The approaches taken in this research project have addressed the problem of cloudiness and precipitation forecasting on meso-alpha and larger scales. The approaches, by virtue of treating the developmental aspects of the short-term forecasting problem, have inherently bypassed the problem of persistence or persistence climatology being such a hard 'forecast' to beat.