State of the Trade: Global Arms Transfer Patterns in the 1980s

摘要

After years of heady growth, the international trade in conventional arms experienced a sharp downturn in the mid-1980s, with orders for new equipment running as much as 50 percent behind the rate of the late 1970s. To a great extent, this decline reflects the global economic recession of 1982-1984 and the crippling debt burden carried by many Third World countries. But close analysis suggests that some of this decline may be a simple matter of statistics, reflecting the inability of current accounting methods to keep pace with structural changes in the global arms market. These changes, though difficult to evaluate in quantitative terms, appear to be effecting a permanent realignment of the weapons trade'a realignment that is likely to frustrate future arms control efforts and increase the intensity of local conflicts in the Third World.