Issues and Options for Achieving National Security in the United States during National Emergencies. Phase 1. A Pilot Study of Grain Stocks and Stocks at Risk

摘要

This study examines issues associated with using unprocessed grain stocks as a post-disaster food resource in national emergencies. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) data on locations at high risk for nuclear attack are combined with agricultural statistics from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) to identify high-risk grain stocks and the proximity of people to stored stocks. Seasonal fluctuations in stocks over 17 quarters between 1981 and 1985 indicate that days of nutrition from stored grains have ranged from a low of 250 days to a high of 600 days. In 1984 about 40% of government-owned grain stocks were stored in high-risk counties. If transportation services were lost in a national disaster, 57% of the U.S. population would have access to only 8% of the unprocessed stored grains and 2% of government-owned stocks. A transportation model is used to calculate the ton-mile movements and transport costs of relocating grains to achieve 30 days and 60 days of nutrition in all States from stored grain stocks.