Development of a Microcomputer-Based Expert Support System: Application of the Analytical Hierarchy Process to the Prioritization of Reliability and Maintainability Modifications

摘要

Expert support systems (ESS) are designed to help decision makers deal with complex, nonprogrammed decisions. This thesis entailed development, implementation, and validation of an ESS in a real-world environment. The problem solving technique used here is the analytic hierarchy process, adapted to the microcomputer by Foreman and others from Decision Support Software in the form of the software package Expert Choice. Included in the research is a background study on decision making in general, the Analytical Hierarchy Process, the evolution of expert support systems, and U.S. Air Force reliability and maintainability issues. The complex decision chosen for this project was Headquarters Tactical Air Command's annual prioritization of R&M modifications. These modifications, known as Class IV-B modifications, improve the effectiveness of fielded weapon systems. Due to a limited budget, not all modifications can be funded in a given year. Therefore, TAC must prioritize the modifications, trading off benefits offered with the cost of each proposed change. This research includes a model designed by the author using Expert Choice to prioritize these modifications that offer the greatest benefit/cost return. Tne model improves responsiveness to changes, increases flexibility, and improves the reliability of the decision-making process. (kr)