Scheme for Nowcasting Heavy Rainfall from Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs)

摘要

The National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) hasbeen involved in operationally estimating precipitation amounts from satellite data for more than a decade. Building on this experience, NESDIS is now developing a Prototype Flash Flood Estimation adn NOWCASTING Scheme (PROFFENS). NOWCASTING consists of a detailed description of the current weather along with a short-range forecast for the next 0-12 hours. PROFENS involves the development of techniques for analyzing how much rain has fallen and forecasting (0-12 hours) how much more rainfall will occur and where. Short range forecasting also involves predicting where new, heavy precipitation systems will develop. Geostationary satellite data is the principal data source for PROFFENS. Since geostationary satellite data is potentially available globally, PROFFENS could be used around the world. Of course, precipitation observations, precipitation estimates derived from radar, surface and upper air observations and numerical and statistical forecast models and guidance products are used PROFFENS. NOWCASTS from this will aid forecasters in evaluating flash flood situations and in the issuance of flash flood watches and warnings. This reprint will briefly describe the components of PROFFENS; a case study is also presented. (kr)