Systematic and Integrated Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting. Part 1.Approach Overview and Description of Meteorological Basis

摘要

A systematic and integrated approach to tropical cyclone (TC) track forecastingis proposed. The approach is based on the premise that TC forecasters can improve upon dynamical track forecasts generated by numerical models and other objective guidance, if the forecasters are equipped with: (i) a meteorological knowledge base of conceptual models that organizes a wide array of scenarios into a relatively few recurring, dynamically-related situations; and (ii) a knowledge base of numerical model TC forecast traits and objective aid traits that is organized around the meteorological knowledge base. The approach is systematic because it includes a methodology for consistently applying the two knowledge bases to generate the official track forecast. The approach is also integrated because the meteorological knowledge base includes motion-relevant characterizations of environment structure, characterizations of TC structure (intensity and size) , and motion-affecting alterations of the environment structure caused by various interactions between the TC and the environment.