Sensitivity of a mesoscale model to different convective parameterization schemes in a heavy rain event

摘要

The Valencia region, on the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula, is propitious to heavy precipitation, especially the area encompassing the South of Valencia province and the North of the Alicante province. In October 2007 a torrential rain affected the aforementioned area, producing accumulated rainfall values greater than 400 mm in less than 24 h and flash-floods that caused extensive economic losses and human casualties. This rain event has been studied in numerical experiments using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System. The present paper deals with the effect of using the different convective parameterizations (CP) currently implemented in the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (Kuo and Kain-Fritsch) in the forecast results, in particular on precipitation forecast. Sensitivity tests have been run with and without these parameterizations activated in a series of combinations of the different grids. Results are very different depending on the model convective parameterization setting. A statistical verification has also been undertaken by calculating different skill scores for each simulation in the experiment.