Parametrical landslide modeling for the hydrogeological susceptibility assessment: from the Crati Valley to the Cavallerizzo landslide (Southern Italy)

摘要

The article deals with a tool for landslides susceptibility assessment as a function of the hydrogeological setting at different scales. The study has been applied to a test area located in Southern Italy. First, a 3D groundwater flow model was implemented for a large-scale area. The simulation of several groundwater conditions compared with the landslide activity map allows drawing a hydrogeological susceptibility map. Then, a slope scale analysis was carried out for the Cavallerizzo landslide. Forthis purpose, a 2D groundwater parametrical modeling was coupled with a slope stability analysis; the simulation was carried out by changing the values of the main hydrogeological parameters (recharge, groundwater supply level, etc.). The results enabledto connect the slope instability to some hydrogeological characteristics that are easy to survey and to monitor (e.g., rainfall, piezometrical level, and spring discharge), pointing out the hazard thresholds with regards to different triggering phenomena.